Passenger vehicles sales in USA is about 17 millions per year today. Global passenger vehicles sales has doubled from 38 millions to 78 millions in last 20 years.
EV sales is about 1%. Goldman Sachs predicts electric vehicles will grow from 1 percent of 2016 global auto sales to 8 percent by 2030, before increasing to nearly one-third market share in 2040.
The analyst said if governments are more aggressive with incentives or battery technology costs improve, the adoption of electric vehicles may accelerate faster than expected. However, Yuzawa noted, the trend will be negative for many auto parts suppliers because electric vehicles do not have any engine-related components.
“Engine and transmission-related parts makers, which generate high value-add as core suppliers for automobiles, are searching for opportunities to advance in electric motor- and battery-related components, but we expect their growth potential to be called into question as EVs become mainstream,” the analyst wrote.
On the flip side, battery technology firms will likely thrive. The analyst projects the battery market will grow to $180 billion in sales by 2040 from just $450 million in 2015.
2017 monthly EV Sales in USA